Your Christmas cash flow plan: from October stock-up to February BAS

For most Australian businesses, Christmas isn’t a month. It’s a five-month cash flow event that starts with supplier invoices in October and ends with a BAS payment on 28 February. Plan only for December, and the bookends will bite.

This guide maps the whole season so you can see the crunch points coming, and decide early whether a loan would help or hurt.

What does the five-month Christmas cycle look like?

Month	What usually happens	Cash direction
October	Stock orders and deposits; casuals recruited and trained	Out
November	Stock lands; marketing spend; trade starts lifting	Mostly out
December	Peak takings; extra wages; public holiday penalty rates for many	In, strongly
January	Lull for many retailers and B2B businesses; leave; slow payers	Thin
February	October to December BAS due 28 February	Out, often big

The shape changes by industry. A tourist-town café peaks in January. A builder closes for three weeks. An online store’s peak may be late November. Map your own.

Step 1: Build a week-by-week forecast

Business.gov.au describes a cash flow forecast as an estimate of future sales and costs that helps you predict shortages and surpluses. For Christmas, a weekly version from 1 October to 28 February is the most useful twenty minutes you’ll spend this year.

For each week, list:

• expected takings (use last year’s same weeks as a guide);
• stock payments and supplier terms;
• wages, including casuals and any public holiday rates;
• super, paid with each pay run under Payday Super;
• rent and fixed costs;
• loan repayments;
• money moved to your tax account.

Step 2: Find the crunch points

Most businesses find two:

1. Late October to mid-November, when stock and staff are paid for but takings haven’t lifted.
2. Mid-January to 28 February, when takings dip and the big BAS falls due.

The first is where a short-term loan can genuinely help. The second is where a tax set-aside account saves you. Our tax set-aside guide walks through it.

Spotted a gap in October and November? That’s the classic case for timing a loan to the season. Start step 1 in 60 seconds, no credit check to enquire.

Step 3: Decide whether to borrow, and on what term

Worked example (illustrative)

A made-up homewares and gift store normally banks about $70,000 a month and about $160,000 in December. It needs $50,000 in early October for stock. A short-term loan quote shows a total cost of finance of $4,500 over 5 months.

Month	Takings	Loan repayment	Notes
October	$70,000	$10,900	Stock paid, sales normal
November	$95,000	$10,900	Trade lifting
December	$160,000	$10,900	Peak
January	$55,000	$10,900	Lull
February	$65,000	$10,900	BAS due 28 February

Spread evenly, the repayment is about 15.6% of a normal month and 19.8% of January. That January figure is uncomfortable. Two better options:

• A 3-month term (October to December), so the loan is cleared while cash is strongest. With an invented total cost of $3,000, that’s about $17,667 a month, heavy in October but finished before January.
• A line of credit, drawn in October and paid down from December takings.

The right answer depends on your margin and how sure you are of December. Try both in the repayment planner.

Step 4: Protect the January lull

Before you spend December’s takings:

1. Move GST for the quarter into your tax account.
2. Set aside one month of fixed costs (rent, base wages, loan repayments) as a January buffer.
3. Clear slow-moving stock early in January rather than holding it until February.
4. Chase receivables before the break. Business.gov.au lists collecting cash owed to you faster as a key way to improve cash flow.

Step 5: Have the 28 February money ready

The ATO lists 28 February as the due date for the October to December quarterly BAS. For most businesses, that quarter includes the year’s peak, so the GST bill is often the biggest of the year. If you’ve moved the GST out weekly, it’s a non-event. If you haven’t, it’s the most common reason we see businesses looking for finance in February.

Industry snapshots

• Retail: peak in December, lull in January, stock is the swing factor. See retail business loans.
• Hospitality: depends on location; CBD venues dip, holiday spots boom. See hospitality business loans.
• Trades and construction: many close for a few weeks; invoices raised in December may not be paid until mid-January.
• E-commerce: the peak often starts in late November; shipping cut-offs end it early. See e-commerce business loans.

The season on one page

• Forecast weekly from October to February.
• Fund the October and November gap, if needed, on a term that ends when the cash arrives.
• Bank the GST as you go.
• Build a January buffer before you spend December.
• Have the 28 February BAS money sitting ready.

Staffing and wages over the season

Wages are often the biggest cost that rises before takings do. Casuals are recruited and trained in October and November, rosters fill out in December, and some businesses pay public holiday penalty rates on Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Year’s Day under their award. Under Payday Super, super is paid with each pay run, so it rises in step with wages.

Build all of that into the weekly forecast, including:

• training shifts before casuals are productive;
• penalty rates on public holidays, where your award requires them;
• leave taken over the break by permanent staff;
• the final pay run before a shutdown, if you close.

Myth or reality: Christmas cash flow

“December always fixes the year.” Only if December’s takings are kept. Spend them in January and February’s BAS becomes a problem.

“Stock bought on 60-day terms is free until February.” It’s due right in the lull. Put it in the forecast.

“A Christmas loan should run for a year.” Usually not. A stock loan that runs long after the stock has sold means paying for goods you no longer have. Match the term to the season.

A simple October checklist

1. Build the weekly forecast to 28 February.
2. Confirm stock orders, delivery dates and payment terms.
3. Plan rosters, including public holidays and leave.
4. Decide on finance now, if the forecast shows a gap.
5. Set up or top up the tax set-aside account.
6. Chase any outstanding invoices before the break.

If you close over Christmas

Trades, construction, manufacturing and many professional firms shut down for a couple of weeks. That brings its own cash pattern:

• Invoices raised in mid-December may not be paid until mid to late January, because your clients are closed too.
• Wages and leave are often paid before the break, all at once.
• Restart costs hit in January: materials for the first jobs, fuel, deposits.
• The February BAS still arrives on time.

If that’s you, invoice as early as you can in December, chase payment before your clients close, and keep enough cash for January wages and the 28 February BAS. A short-term loan or line of credit can bridge the restart if the forecast shows a gap, but it should be repaid from January and February invoices, not rolled into the next season.

Countdown to Christmas

If your forecast shows an October gap, the best time to sort finance is before the stock order, not after.

Get step 1 done now. It takes about 60 seconds, there’s no credit check to enquire, we don’t spread your details across a crowd of lenders, and a real expert calls you to help time it. Please give accurate figures for a normal month and last December on the form, so we can match the loan to your season first go.